Tesla Q1: The Earnings Call We Want, Not the One We’ll Get

Tesla’s Q1 Earnings: Lower Your Expectations (Seriously)

If you're expecting Tesla to crush Q1 earnings… you may be in for a disappointment.

Bradford and Matt broke it all down on our Tuesday livestream, and surprise: they're not exactly on the same page. Matt’s modeling 30 cents EPS—already below analysts’ estimates—and Bradford thinks even that might be generous. Meanwhile, Wall Street is clinging to a 40-cent dream based on last year’s volume. Except… this isn’t last year.

The Model Y is getting discounted into the dirt. The Cybertruck ramp is messy. And fixed costs aren’t exactly getting spread across millions of cars. So yeah—expect weak numbers. But also? That’s not the story that matters.

Forget the Numbers. What We Need Is Direction.

We’re not in this for one quarter’s profit. And if you’re following Tesla closely, you probably aren’t either. What we actually want—what investors deserve—is clarity. Direction. Substance.

So here’s the wishlist:

Robotaxis: Stop Teasing, Start Talking

Let’s start with Austin. When are we actually going to see the first wave of Cybercabs hit the road? Is it just for employees? When do Dallas and Houston join the party? How many vehicles are we talking about?

Wall Street can’t model the opportunity without details. And if Tesla doesn’t give us those answers, it just leaves more room for Uber and Lyft to throw shade—and discounts—at whatever rollout Tesla attempts.

LFP Batteries: Still in the Shadows

Remember when Tesla bought LFP battery equipment from CATL? Allegedly working gear, shipped to the U.S.? Still radio silence.

Maybe those batteries are going into Megapacks right now and nobody’s said a word. But if that’s the case—why not brag about it? If Tesla is making progress on lithium iron phosphate, investors should know.

Rare Earth Risks: An Elephant No One’s Talking About

Export restrictions from China aren’t just about lithium. Motors need rare earths too. Tesla has said they’re working on reducing dependence, but we don’t know how vulnerable they still are.

Do they have stockpiles? Have they transitioned production in Nevada to rare-earth-free designs? If not, a sudden policy change overseas could be a real problem. It’d be nice to know if they’ve got a plan.

4680 Batteries: Four Years Later, Are We There Yet?

It’s been over four years since Battery Day. Are 4680s finally scaling? The head of 4680s on LinkedIn says yes. Elon says the cost is down below supplier levels. But is that true at volume—or just in batches?

Bradford’s skeptical. Matt’s got Semi PTSD. Neither one is convinced Tesla’s done hyping these things prematurely. At this point, we just want results.

Optimus: Second Gen? Third Gen? What Are We Even Seeing?

Tesla’s humanoid robot got some updates at the We, Robot event—but what’s actually going into production? The newer hand? A full Gen 3? And how many are being made this year?

Look, we get that Tesla doesn’t want to tip its hand too much with competitors watching. But if Optimus is real enough to demo… it’s real enough to update investors.

Affordable Cybertruck: Walkback or Master Plan?

So... maybe it’s not a commercial failure? There’s now a lower-priced variant that actually looks kind of competitive. Enough to make Matt eat some of his earlier words. Just not all of them.

Still, Bradford raises the question: Is this the “new model” Tesla has been teasing for 2025? If so, that’s kind of a letdown. Cloth seats ≠ a TAM-expanding vehicle.

We’re still waiting for a true compact EV. If it doesn’t come, maybe the bears were right.

The Bottom Line: Tone Will Matter More Than Numbers

EPS? Probably ugly. But the stock might not care—if Tesla nails the tone and shows real, credible plans for the rest of 2025. That means:

• Specifics on Robotaxi rollout

• Updates on supply chain resiliency

• Real answers on battery scaling

• And honesty about new models

Because we’re not just here to watch the scoreboard. We’re trying to model the future.

And that takes more than hype.