The Boring Stock With Explosive Potential

Let’s get one thing out of the way—Lemonade isn’t flashy. No humanoid robots. No EV hype. No FSD demos or Dojo chips. Just... insurance.

And yet, we’re still holding it. Still modeling it. And at $25? We’re salivating.

In our latest Tuesday Livestream, we unpacked why Lemonade ($LMND) is still one of the most misunderstood stocks in the market—and why boring doesn’t mean broken.

Everyone’s Looking at the Wrong Metrics

Legacy insurance guys keep hammering the same point: Lemonade is still losing money. We agree—on the surface.

But dig into the customer acquisition model, and you’ll see what Wall Street is missing. Like Tesla’s CapEx-heavy growth in its early days, Lemonade is front-loading its spend—only it’s on customers, not factories. Once they pass that critical mass (which we model to hit in about two years), the cash flows get real interesting.

“Imagine if Tesla had to expense all their Gigafactory builds in one quarter. That’s what Lemonade’s doing with customer acquisition.” – Matt

What the Market Missed at $25

Lemonade is down roughly 50% off the highs. It peaked around $51, now trading around $25. But nothing fundamentally changed. The margins are still predictable. The AI is still doing what it’s supposed to. And the long-term outlook? Still on track.

The volatility is noise. Beta? 2.13. Which means when the market sneezes, LMND catches the flu. But if you’re long-term focused, that beta cuts both ways—and we're fine with that.

Yeah, It’s Boring. That’s the Point.

This isn’t the kind of stock people tattoo on their leg. There’s no cult around Lemonade. But for us, that’s a feature, not a bug. There’s alpha in boring. Especially when that boring is misunderstood by analysts using 20th-century models to evaluate a 21st-century company.

We’ve run the cohort models. We’ve stress-tested the margins. We even trimmed near the peak. Now that it’s back at $25? We're still interested.

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This post is based on a clip from our weekly livestream, where we dig into misunderstood stocks, macro chaos, and anything else the market’s freaking out about.

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