At Rebellionaire, we pride ourselves on diving deep into the numbers and uncovering the truths behind Tesla's financials that others may overlook. Recently, we focused on a particular aspect of Tesla's reports—Unsatisfied Performance Obligations (UPOs). This metric piqued our interest, and we went all in, developing a thesis around it that we believed could have significant implications for Tesla Energy's future.
However, not all theories hold up under scrutiny. Here’s what we thought, what we found, and where we stand now.
The Initial Excitement: High-Margin Revenue?
Our initial analysis was driven by an intriguing discovery in Tesla's 10-Q filing—a $5.7 billion UPO balance as of June 30th. We hypothesized that this could represent high-margin revenue associated with Tesla Energy’s MegaPack deployments. Our thinking was that the UPOs, if recognized as revenue, could have up to 90% gross margins because the related costs had already been accounted for under the cost of goods sold.
Given Tesla Energy's historical gross margins, this presented an enormous delta, which led us to project significant future earnings. We were cautious, however, noting that our theory hinged on upcoming quarters showing a significant increase in Tesla Energy's gross margins. If they didn’t, we’d have to reconsider our position.
The Reality Check: What UPOs Really Are
After some intense discussions and further digging, including consultation with CPAs and even direct contact with Tesla’s Investor Relations, we got our answer—UPOs are not the high-margin gold mine we hoped they were. Instead, they represent unfulfilled contracts that span over a year. Essentially, it's a backlog of orders rather than immediate, high-margin revenue.
Tesla confirmed that these are orders for MegaPacks and other energy products that are still in the pipeline, waiting to be fulfilled. This information aligned with feedback from others in the financial community, and it forced us to rethink our assumptions.
The Financial Impact: Adjusting Our Models
Realizing that UPOs don’t represent immediate high-margin revenue, we had to adjust our financial models. Initially, we projected Tesla Energy's gross profit to skyrocket, expecting it to hit $1.5 billion by Q4 next year and $2.5 billion per quarter by 2027. These projections were based on the assumption of exceptionally high margins.
However, with the new understanding of UPOs, our revised projections are more conservative but, frankly, more realistic. We now expect Tesla Energy to reach that $1.5 billion gross profit mark about two years later than initially thought. The main driver of growth will now be the scaling of deployments rather than an unexpected surge in gross margin.
The Bottom Line: Lessons Learned
While this adjustment may seem disappointing, it’s crucial to stay grounded in reality. Even with the revised projections, Tesla Energy remains a solid growth story, albeit not as explosive as we initially hoped. It’s a reminder that while it’s exciting to speculate, our commitment is to provide accurate, realistic analysis.
Our revised estimate sees Tesla Energy contributing around $0.60 per share by next year, which, while lower than our previous dollar-per-share estimate, is still higher than many analysts predict. Tesla's energy business is scaling quickly, and it’s something the market cannot continue to ignore.
Looking Ahead: What’s Next for Tesla Energy?
Despite this recalibration, there are still exciting developments on the horizon. For instance, Tesla’s potential innovation with MegaPacks connecting directly to high-voltage power lines without the need for transformers could be a game-changer. While we don’t yet know the technical details, it’s an idea worth watching.
Furthermore, Tesla’s Lathrop and Shanghai factories are scaling up, and there’s speculation that another MegaPack factory could be on the way in Europe. These developments could significantly impact Tesla Energy’s growth trajectory.
Final Thoughts
We wish our initial interpretation of the UPOs had been correct, but we’re not here to sugarcoat reality. At Rebellionaire, our goal is to provide you with research that’s both thorough and accurate. While we had to temper our expectations this time, we remain bullish on Tesla Energy’s long-term potential. The UPO disclosure, though not as thrilling as we first imagined, still provides valuable insight into Tesla’s future energy revenues.
Stay tuned as we continue to track these developments and adjust our strategies accordingly. And remember, even when the narrative isn’t as exciting as we’d like, there’s always a valuable lesson to be learned—and another opportunity just around the corner.
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