The S&P 500 Just Had a Wild 9.5% Day—Now What?

So… the S&P 500 decided to go absolutely feral on April 9th, jumping 9.5% in a single day. Not a typo. Nine. Point. Five. Percent. In one trading session. If your portfolio didn’t feel like it had five Red Bulls and a rocket booster strapped to it, you might wanna check if you're actually in the market.

Now, if you saw Charlie Bilello’s post on X (and if you didn’t, seriously, get on X already), this wasn’t just a random sugar high for the market. It was the third-largest single-day gain since 1950. That’s over seven decades of market mayhem—and this ranks right up there.

Just for some spicy context:

• The second-biggest gain? October 28, 2008: +9.9%.

• The biggest? October 13, 2008: +10.1%.

Yeah, both were during the 2008 financial crisis, which, if you’ll remember, was like watching the economy fall down a flight of stairs... in slow motion... with fire.

So what’s going on now? Are we mid-crisis and didn’t realize it? Or is this something else entirely?

Let’s dig in.

History’s Like: “Chill, This Is a Good Thing”

Here’s where it gets interesting—and I mean history nerds and market junkies unite interesting.

Bilello didn’t just highlight the size of the move. He dropped a bomb of a data nugget: after the top 14 biggest daily gains in the S&P (ranging from +5.7% to +11.6%)… the market usually crushes it.

Like, really crushes it.

• 1-year median return? +22%

• 3-year median return? +46%

• 5-year median return? +120%

That's not just a bounce. That's a trampoline launch into the stratosphere. Historically, when the market has had a monster day like this, it’s often a turning point—not a fluke.

So the market just told us, with the enthusiasm of a toddler hopped up on Halloween candy: “I'm back, baby!”

But hold up. Before you start YOLO’ing your entire 401(k) into leveraged S&P ETFs, let’s pump the brakes for a sec.

But Goldman’s Like: “Calm Down, Tiger.”

Goldman Sachs—aka Wall Street’s equivalent of that friend who always orders the salad and reminds you how many calories are in a margarita—has a more chill outlook for 2025.

Their call? A 10% gain for the S&P 500 by year-end.

Respectable. Nothing to sneeze at. But it’s not exactly the 22% party history wants us to believe is coming.

Their logic?

• Valuations are high. We’re talkin’ a P/E ratio of 21.7x, which puts us in the 93rd percentile historically. Translation: the market’s not cheap.

• Policy risks. Rate cuts might be slower than we hoped. And the Fed is still lurking like a disappointed parent with a belt made of interest rate hikes.

• Macro wild cards. Geopolitics, inflation hangovers, election year chaos—pick your poison.

So basically, Goldman’s saying: “Yeah, this pop was cute, but don’t bet the farm just yet.”

So... Who’s Right?

Honestly? Probably both.

Markets aren’t binary. You don’t have to choose between “we’re going to the moon” and “the sky is falling.” What we do have is a moment—a big, dramatic, high-volume moment—that historically has led to big upside. But this moment’s also happening in a context that’s very 2025: AI hype, weirdly sticky inflation, an election circus, and a bunch of suits debating rate cuts like it’s a game of poker.

What that means for you?

If you’re a long-term investor, history is basically handing you a pep talk wrapped in a performance chart. But if you’re expecting instant gratification? Temper that. The market just made a statement, but it’s not promising a repeat performance every week.

Final Thought Before You Go

Here’s the thing no chart can tell you: this market is emotional. It whips, it dips, it freaks out over nothing, and sometimes it rallies for reasons nobody can explain. But if history’s any guide, these mega green days don’t happen in isolation—they're usually part of a bigger narrative shift.

Are we at the start of a new bull? A mid-cycle head-fake? Just vibing?

That’s where you come in.

Drop your thoughts in the comments. Are you feeling bullish, cautious, or just confused as hell? We’re in this wild ride together—might as well scream into the void as a team.

And hey—whatever happens next, just try not to check your portfolio every five minutes. That’s how ulcers happen.